@article {5441, title = {Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {384}, number = {9947}, year = {2014}, note = {Wang, Haidong
Liddell, Chelsea A
Coates, Matthew M
Mooney, Meghan D
Levitz, Carly E
Schumacher, Austin E
Apfel, Henry
Iannarone, Marissa
Phillips, Bryan
Lofgren, Katherine T
Sandar, Logan
Dorrington, Rob E
Rakovac, Ivo
Jacobs, Troy A
Liang, Xiaofeng
Zhou, Maigeng
Zhu, Jun
Yang, Gonghuan
Wang, Yanping
Liu, Shiwei
Li, Yichong
Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu
Abera, Semaw Ferede
Abubakar, Ibrahim
Achoki, Tom
Adelekan, Ademola
Ademi, Zanfina
Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
Allen, Peter J
AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz
Alvarez, Elena
Amankwaa, Adansi A
Amare, Azmeraw T
Ammar, Walid
Anwari, Palwasha
Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu
Asad, Majed Masoud
Assadi, Reza
Banerjee, Amitava
Basu, Sanjay
Bedi, Neeraj
Bekele, Tolesa
Bell, Michelle L
Bhutta, Zulfiqar
Blore, Jed D
Basara, Berrak Bora
Boufous, Soufiane
Breitborde, Nicholas
Bruce, Nigel G
Bui, Linh Ngoc
Carapetis, Jonathan R
Cardenas, Rosario
Carpenter, David O
Caso, Valeria
Castro, Ruben Estanislao
Catala-Lopez, Ferran
Cavlin, Alanur
Che, Xuan
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia
Chowdhury, Rajiv
Christophi, Costas A
Chuang, Ting-Wu
Cirillo, Massimo
da Costa Leite, Iuri
Courville, Karen J
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Davis, Adrian
Dayama, Anand
Deribe, Kebede
Dharmaratne, Samath D
Dherani, Mukesh K
Dilmen, Ugur
Ding, Eric L
Edmond, Karen M
Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fijabi, Daniel Obadare
Foigt, Nataliya
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
Garcia, Ana C
Geleijnse, Johanna M
Gessner, Bradford D
Goginashvili, Ketevan
Gona, Philimon
Goto, Atsushi
Gouda, Hebe N
Green, Mark A
Greenwell, Karen Fern
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Gupta, Rahul
Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
Hammami, Mouhanad
Harb, Hilda L
Hay, Simon
Hedayati, Mohammad T
Hosgood, H Dean
Hoy, Damian G
Idrisov, Bulat T
Islami, Farhad
Ismayilova, Samaya
Jha, Vivekanand
Jiang, Guohong
Jonas, Jost B
Juel, Knud
Kabagambe, Edmond Kato
Kazi, Dhruv S
Kengne, Andre Pascal
Kereselidze, Maia
Khader, Yousef Saleh
Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
Khang, Young-Ho
Kim, Daniel
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kinge, Jonas M
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Kosen, Soewarta
Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
Kumar, G Anil
Kumar, Kaushalendra
Kumar, Ravi B
Lai, Taavi
Lan, Qing
Larsson, Anders
Lee, Jong-Tae
Leinsalu, Mall
Lim, Stephen S
Lipshultz, Steven E
Logroscino, Giancarlo
Lotufo, Paulo A
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Lyons, Ronan Anthony
Ma, Stefan
Mahdi, Abbas Ali
Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
Mazorodze, Tasara T
McGrath, John J
Memish, Ziad A
Mendoza, Walter
Mensah, George A
Meretoja, Atte
Miller, Ted R
Mills, Edward J
Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
Mokdad, Ali H
Monasta, Lorenzo
Montico, Marcella
Moore, Ami R
Moschandreas, Joanna
Msemburi, William T
Mueller, Ulrich O
Muszynska, Magdalena M
Naghavi, Mohsen
Naidoo, Kovin S
Narayan, K M Venkat
Nejjari, Chakib
Ng, Marie
de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean
Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J
Nyakarahuka, Luke
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Omer, Saad B
Caicedo, Angel J Paternina
Pillay-van Wyk, Victoria
Pope, Dan
Pourmalek, Farshad
Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
Rahman, Sajjad U R
Rana, Saleem M
Reilly, Robert Quentin
Rojas-Rueda, David
Ronfani, Luca
Rushton, Lesley
Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
Salomon, Joshua A
Sampson, Uchechukwu
Santos, Itamar S
Sawhney, Monika
Schmidt, Jurgen C
Shakh-Nazarova, Marina
She, Jun
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
Shibuya, Kenji
Shin, Hwashin Hyun
Shishani, Kawkab
Shiue, Ivy
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Singh, Jasvinder A
Skirbekk, Vegard
Sliwa, Karen
Soshnikov, Sergey S
Sposato, Luciano A
Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
Tabb, Karen M
Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
Teixeira, Carolina Maria
Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
Thomson, Alan J
Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L
Toyoshima, Hideaki
Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala
Uwaliraye, Parfait
Uzun, Selen Begum
Vasankari, Tommi J
Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
Vollset, Stein Emil
Waller, Stephen
Wan, Xia
Weichenthal, Scott
Weiderpass, Elisabete
Weintraub, Robert G
Westerman, Ronny
Wilkinson, James D
Williams, Hywel C
Yang, Yang C
Yentur, Gokalp Kadri
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Younis, Mustafa
Yu, Chuanhua
Jin, Kim Yun
El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
Zhu, Shankuan
Vos, Theo
Lopez, Alan D
Murray, Christopher J L
eng
095066/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
RG/08/014/24067/British Heart Foundation/United Kingdom
201900/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom
MR/L003120/1/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom
MR/K023233/1/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom
MR/K006525/1/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom
Multicenter Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov{\textquoteright}t
England
2014/05/07 06:00
Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):957-79. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9. Epub 2014 May 2.}, month = {Sep 13}, pages = {957-79}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6.3 million (95\% UI 6.0-6.6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64\% reduction from 17.6 million (17.1-18.1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152.5 per 1000 livebirths (130.6-177.4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2.3 (1.8-2.9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6.8\% to 0.1\%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41.6\% of under-5 deaths compared with 37.4\% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1.4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0.9 million and 2.2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4.2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1\% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill \& Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.}, keywords = {Child Mortality/*trends, Child, Preschool, Global Health/statistics \& numerical data/*trends, Humans, Infant, Infant Mortality/*trends, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors}, isbn = {1474-547X (Electronic)
0140-6736 (Linking)}, author = {Wang, H. and Liddell, C. A. and Coates, M. M. and Mooney, M. D. and Levitz, C. E. and Schumacher, A. E. and Apfel, H. and Iannarone, M. and Phillips, B. and Lofgren, K. T. and Sandar, L. and Dorrington, R. E. and Rakovac, I. and Jacobs, T. A. and Liang, X. and Zhou, M. and Zhu, J. and Yang, G. and Wang, Y. and Liu, S. and Li, Y. and Ozgoren, A. A. and Abera, S. F. and Abubakar, I. and Achoki, T. and Adelekan, A. and Ademi, Z. and Alemu, Z. A. and Allen, P. J. and AlMazroa, M. A. and Alvarez, E. and Amankwaa, A. A. and Amare, A. T. and Ammar, W. and Anwari, P. and Cunningham, S. A. and Asad, M. M. and Assadi, R. and Banerjee, A. and Basu, S. and Bedi, N. and Bekele, T. and Bell, M. L. and Bhutta, Z. and Blore, J. D. and Basara, B. B. and Boufous, S. and Breitborde, N. and Bruce, N. G. and Bui, L. N. and Carapetis, J. R. and Cardenas, R. and Carpenter, D. O. and Caso, V. and Castro, R. E. and Catala-Lopez, F. and Cavlin, A. and Che, X. and Chiang, P. P. and Chowdhury, R. and Christophi, C. A. and Chuang, T. W. and Cirillo, M. and da Costa Leite, I. and Courville, K. J. and Dandona, L. and Dandona, R. and Davis, A. and Dayama, A. and Deribe, K. and Dharmaratne, S. D. and Dherani, M. K. and Dilmen, U. and Ding, E. L. and Edmond, K. M. and Ermakov, S. P. and Farzadfar, F. and Fereshtehnejad, S. M. and Fijabi, D. O. and Foigt, N. and Forouzanfar, M. H. and Garcia, A. C. and Geleijnse, J. M. and Gessner, B. D. and Goginashvili, K. and Gona, P. and Goto, A. and Gouda, H. N. and Green, M. A. and Greenwell, K. F. and Gugnani, H. C. and Gupta, R. and Hamadeh, R. R. and Hammami, M. and Harb, H. L. and Hay, S. and Hedayati, M. T. and Hosgood, H. D. and Hoy, D. G. and Idrisov, B. T. and Islami, F. and Ismayilova, S. and Jha, V. and Jiang, G. and Jonas, J. B. and Juel, K. and Kabagambe, E. K. and Kazi, D. S. and Kengne, A. P. and Kereselidze, M. and Khader, Y. S. and Khalifa, S. E. and Khang, Y. H. and Kim, D. and Kinfu, Y. and Kinge, J. M. and Kokubo, Y. and Kosen, S. and Defo, B. K. and Kumar, G. A. and Kumar, K. and Kumar, R. B. and Lai, T. and Lan, Q. and Larsson, A. and Lee, J. T. and Leinsalu, M. and Lim, S. S. and Lipshultz, S. E. and Logroscino, G. and Lotufo, P. A. and Lunevicius, R. and Lyons, R. A. and Ma, S. and Mahdi, A. A. and Marzan, M. B. and Mashal, M. T. and Mazorodze, T. T. and McGrath, J. J. and Memish, Z. A. and Mendoza, W. and Mensah, G. A. and Meretoja, A. and Miller, T. R. and Mills, E. J. and Mohammad, K. A. and Mokdad, A. H. and Monasta, L. and Montico, M. and Moore, A. R. and Moschandreas, J. and Msemburi, W. T. and Mueller, U. O. and Muszynska, M. M. and Naghavi, M. and Naidoo, K. S. and Narayan, K. M. and Nejjari, C. and Ng, M. and de Dieu Ngirabega, J. and Nieuwenhuijsen, M. J. and Nyakarahuka, L. and Ohkubo, T. and Omer, S. B. and Caicedo, A. J. and Pillay-van Wyk, V. and Pope, D. and Pourmalek, F. and Prabhakaran, D. and Rahman, S. U. and Rana, S. M. and Reilly, R. Q. and Rojas-Rueda, D. and Ronfani, L. and Rushton, L. and Saeedi, M. Y. and Salomon, J. A. and Sampson, U. and Santos, I. S. and Sawhney, M. and Schmidt, J. C. and Shakh-Nazarova, M. and She, J. and Sheikhbahaei, S. and Shibuya, K. and Shin, H. H. and Shishani, K. and Shiue, I. and Sigfusdottir, I. D. and Singh, J. A. and Skirbekk, V. and Sliwa, K. and Soshnikov, S. S. and Sposato, L. A. and Stathopoulou, V. K. and Stroumpoulis, K. and Tabb, K. M. and Talongwa, R. T. and Teixeira, C. M. and Terkawi, A. S. and Thomson, A. J. and Thorne-Lyman, A. L. and Toyoshima, H. and Dimbuene, Z. T. and Uwaliraye, P. and Uzun, S. B. and Vasankari, T. J. and Vasconcelos, A. M. and Vlassov, V. V. and Vollset, S. E. and Waller, S. and Wan, X. and Weichenthal, S. and Weiderpass, E. and Weintraub, R. G. and Westerman, R. and Wilkinson, J. D. and Williams, H. C. and Yang, Y. C. and Yentur, G. K. and Yip, P. and Yonemoto, N. and Younis, M. and Yu, C. and Jin, K. Y. and El Sayed Zaki, M. and Zhu, S. and Vos, T. and Lopez, A. D. and Murray, C. J.} }